For DTC founders scaling paid ads
Stop guessing what to reorder. Always know exactly what, when, and how much.
When a SKU runs out mid-campaign, the ads don't stop — you lose the revenue from both the ads and missed sales. We forecast demand at the SKU level, flag what's about to run dry, and tell you exactly what to reorder. Done for you, built on your data.
2 spots open in May · Response within 24 hours
Sample Report — Inventory Risk Snapshot
Revenue at Risk (30d)
$94,215
↑ 18% vs last month
~9% of trailing 30-day revenue
SKUs at Risk
7
3 critical, 4 moderate
Days to First Stockout
9
Action required now
At-Risk SKUs — Ranked by Urgency
Demand Forecast — 8-Week Outlook
Vitamin C Serum — 30mlThe problem
Running inventory on a spreadsheet
and a gut feel costs you.
You stock out mid-campaign
Ads keep spending. Revenue stops. You're paying Meta to drive traffic to a sold-out page — and you had no warning it was coming.
You over-order to compensate
So you buffer. 90-day supply just in case. Cash tied up, margins crushed, warehouse full of product that isn't moving. The pendulum swings both ways.
You find out too late
The page says sold out. Ads have been sending traffic for three hours. You're choosing between pausing campaigns and losing momentum or keep burning spend on a dead page. Both options lose. You had no warning.
You can't scale with confidence
Every time you want to push ad spend, the same question hits: do we have enough stock to handle it? And the answer is always a guess.
What you get
Intelligence that tells you what to order,
when, and how much revenue is on the line.
SKU-level demand forecast
Your best-selling variant can run dry in 9 days while three others sit untouched. This catches it — per product, per variant, modeled on your actual sales history. Not an average. The specific SKUs that are about to become your problem.
In every auditRevenue-at-risk calculation
You've been managing inventory on gut feel. Here's what that's been costing you — in dollars, specific to your store, for the next 30 days. This is the number most founders have never seen — and can't stop thinking about once they do.
In every auditReorder recommendations
Not "you should probably reorder soon." Exact units, exact timing, exactly which SKUs. Forward it to your supplier and move on. Starting from the first report, you stop making this call on gut feel.
In every auditStockout early warning
Two weeks before you run out — not the day your ads are sending $500/hour to a sold-out page. Your SKU. Your timeline. Ranked by what needs to move first. Early enough to actually do something about it.
In every auditOn retainer, these run daily
Ad campaign impact modeling
You want to push Meta budget next month. The question you're afraid to answer honestly: can my inventory handle it? Now you know before you flip the switch — not after you've burned $20K driving traffic to a page that says "out of stock."
Retainer onlyDaily intelligence report
Every morning: what sold faster than expected yesterday, what's now at risk, what to order today. One document. No logging in, no dashboard to interpret. The thing that replaces the spreadsheet you've been using to manage a six-figure inventory problem.
Retainer onlyHow it works
From first conversation to full clarity
in six steps.
You submit the form Audit
Fill in your store details and tell us where inventory has cost you. We review it and reach out within one business day to get things started.
You send your sales and stock data Audit
A simple export — takes about 3 minutes. Sales history and current stock levels. No API access, no integrations, no credentials.
We build your forecast and intelligence layer Audit
Every SKU modeled individually on your actual data. Stockout timelines identified, revenue at risk calculated, reorder recommendations built — and packaged into a written intelligence report you can act on immediately. Delivered in about 1 week.
We walk through it together Audit
45-minute call. Your SKUs, your numbers, your reorder actions. You leave knowing exactly what to do — and what's on the line if you don't.
Choose to go live on the retainer Retainer
Optional — but the audit answers "where do I stand today." The retainer answers "I always know." Most founders who see their revenue-at-risk number want to keep that visibility running — updated every day, before every campaign.
Your intelligence runs daily Retainer
Forecasts update as new orders come in. Reorder triggers fire as they hit. Every morning: what's at risk, what to order, what's coming. The spreadsheet goes in the trash.
How to get started
Start with a snapshot.
Stay when you want it running every day.
Inventory Risk Audit
$500
one-time · delivered in 1 week
A full inventory risk snapshot built from your sales data. Forecast, stockout timelines, revenue at risk, reorder recs — delivered in 1 week with a 45-minute walkthrough call. No commitment beyond this.
NeverStockOut Retainer
$1,500
per month · cancel anytime
Your store's intelligence layer, running every day. Forecasts update as orders come in, reorder triggers fire before you run out, and before any campaign you'll know exactly whether your inventory can handle the spend.
Estimate your stockout exposure
Move the sliders to see what stockouts are costing you
Estimated annual revenue at risk
$93,333
~$23,333 per stockout event · 4 events/year
Estimated service ROI
5.2x
return on $1,500/mo retainer
This is a rough estimate. The audit gives you the real number on your actual data.
See your real number →Why trust this
Harshul Varma
LinkedInApplied AI scientist. Built demand forecasting for 1,500+ SKUs at a $5B pet nutrition brand — $6M in supply chain costs saved. Built production ML systems processing $100B+ in financial data at one of Canada's largest banks. 4 patents filed. Now applying the same methodology to DTC inventory — so founders can scale paid spend without stockout risk. Every report is built and delivered by me personally — not a team of analysts or an automated dashboard.
$6M
Demand forecasting for 1,500+ SKUs at a $5B pet nutrition brand. The same rigor, applied to your store.
$100B+
In financial data modeled at one of Canada's largest banks. Enterprise-grade methodology — not a SaaS wrapper.
4
Patents filed in ML and AI systems. Purpose-built forecasting — not a plug-in from the Shopify App Store.
Done-for-you
You send data, we build the intelligence. Reports, forecasts, reorder triggers, and campaign impact modeling — all delivered to you. No dashboards to learn, no models to maintain.
Frequently asked questions
Those are self-serve tools — you log in, you interpret the data, you decide what to do. This is done-for-you: you send your data, a custom model is built on your store specifically, and you get a written report with exact actions. No learning curve, no dashboard to figure out. The other difference is the model itself — generic SaaS tools apply the same algorithm to every store. This is a custom model built specifically on your sales history. It knows your patterns, not an average of 10,000 stores.
No. Just a simple data export — takes about 3 minutes to pull from your Shopify admin. No integrations, no credentials, no ongoing access to your store.
Best fit is 10+ active SKUs and at least 6 months of sales history. Under that, there isn't enough data to build reliable per-product forecasts. If you're on the edge, reach out — we'll be straight with you about whether it makes sense.
About 1 week from when we receive your data. You'll have the full written report before we get on the walkthrough call.
The audit is a one-time snapshot. The retainer keeps it live — daily updated forecasts as new orders come in, reorder alerts as they trigger, and ad campaign impact modeling before you scale spend. If you're planning to double your Meta budget next month, we'll tell you whether your inventory can handle it before you flip the switch.
None. The audit is a standalone deliverable — one payment, one report, one call. The retainer exists if you want the forecast kept live every day, but there's no pressure and no obligation coming out of the audit.
SaaS tools apply the same generic algorithm to every store. This is a custom model trained on your sales history specifically, built by someone who built production ML forecasting systems at one of Canada's largest banks — $100B+ in financial data, 4 patents filed. The audit is also low-commitment: $500 to see exactly where you stand before deciding on anything ongoing.
A part-time ops coordinator costs $2,500–$4,000/month and still manages inventory on spreadsheets. They can flag a problem after it shows up in a report — they can't model what happens to your stock if you double Meta spend next month. This is a purpose-built ML forecasting system applied to your specific data, built by someone with enterprise-level forecasting experience. At $1,500/month on the retainer, it's cheaper than a part-time hire and does something no spreadsheet-based ops person can.
Get started
Tell us about your store.
Fill in the form and we'll get back to you within one business day.
"At a $5B pet nutrition brand, I built demand forecasting across 1,500+ SKUs. The model identified $6M in supply chain savings in the first year — by flagging overstock in slow-moving variants while catching understock risk in top sellers before peak season. Same methodology, applied to your store."
— Harshul Varma